Nifty Outlook: Target Achieved, Policy Headwinds to Test Bulls
The Nifty 50 Index closed last week (15–19 September 2025) firmly in line with our projections. After breaking above the critical 25,002 resistance and closing at 25,114, the index rallied to a high of 25,448, nearly kissing our 25,450 target before mild profit booking set in. The uptrend confirmation boosted market sentiment, though the new week brings added uncertainty.
Weekly Outlook (22 – 26 September 2025)
With Nifty now consolidating around 25,300 levels, traders must weigh the bullish chart structure against new global headwinds.
Bullish Scenario (if sustains above 25,200):
Upside targets: 25,450 → 25,667 → 25,911.
Sustained close above 25,911 can open the path towards 26,200+ in the coming weeks.
Bearish Scenario (if breaks below 25,200):
Downside targets: 25,106 → 24,850 → 24,675.
A close below 24,675 will weaken structure and expose 24,400 – 24,200.
Sentiment & Strategy
Bias: Mildly bullish overall, but early part of the week could see pressure.
Swing Traders: Buy on dips near 25,100–25,200 with SL 24,850. Book profits around 25,667–25,911.
Positional Traders: Hold longs above 25,200, avoid fresh longs below this level.
US
H-1B Visa Shock & Sectoral Impact
The U.S. government’s sudden move to impose a USD 100,000 annual fee on new H-1B visas (effective 21 September 2025) is expected to weigh heavily on Indian IT exporters, who account for over 70% of such visa allocations.
IT Companies at Risk: Large-cap Indian IT firms may face margin pressure, uncertainty in deploying staff to U.S. projects, and possible earnings downgrades.
Market Impact: With IT forming a significant weight in the Nifty index, this policy shock could trigger selling pressure and drag the index lower.
Investor Sentiment: Short-term risk aversion among foreign investors may amplify volatility.
Early Week Outlook
Given the likely weakness in IT stocks, Nifty may trade with a bearish bias for the first 2–3 days of the week. Any dip below 25,200 could intensify selling, with 25,106 – 24,850 acting as immediate supports. Bulls may only regain control if the index stabilizes above 25,450 with volume.
Conclusion
While the broader technical picture for Nifty remains constructive above 25,200, external headwinds from U.S. visa policy changes threaten near-term sentiment. Traders should expect a weak-to-bearish start, particularly in IT-heavy sectors, before the market attempts any recovery later in the week.